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腾讯生猛,米哈游“失神”
2025-03-14 08:52

图片

出品|虎嗅黄青春频道

作者|商业消费主笔 黄青春

头图|电影《敦刻尔克》

毫无疑问,腾讯游戏稳住了“王者归来”的势头。

3 月 7 日,Sensor Tower 统计出 2025 年 2 月中国游戏厂商入围全球手游发行商收入榜情况,国内共有 35 家游戏厂商旗下产品挤入全球手游 TOP100,合计单月吸金规模达 19 亿美元(不包括中国地区第三方安卓渠道),占期内全球 TOP100 手游发行商收入的 37%(下图为虎嗅基于点点数据样本列出九款垂类头部产品在 2 月的流水变化)。

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数据来源:点点数据(下同)

若从游戏厂商的竞争格局来分析,2025 年“腾网米”(腾讯、网易、米哈游三强鼎立)的格局正在洗牌,整个 2 月国内游戏厂商呈现出“两超多强”与垂直赛道突围的局面。

尤其,腾讯依旧延续今年 1 月的爆发势能,其之于游戏行业的统治力再一次在 2 月得到充分验证,不可谓不强势。

“两超”依然生猛

腾讯先在 SensorTower 公布的 1 月中国 App Store 手游收入排行榜中独揽 TOP5,推动其 1 月整体收入环比大幅提升 62%,稳居中国手游发行商全球收入冠军。

具体到产品,《王者荣耀》《和平精英》《穿越火线》分列前三,期内收入分别激增 94%、267%、421%,《地下城与勇士:起源》《金铲铲之战》紧随其后分列四、五。

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接着在 SensorTower 公布的 2 月中国 App Store 手游收入排行榜中再次包揽 TOP4;其中,《王者荣耀》通过“福利+新皮肤+新版本”刺激社交裂变,“苍”、“西施”、“狄仁杰”等新皮肤对流水拉动明显,坐稳了收入冠军;紧随其后的《和平精英》《金铲铲之战》《穿越火线》则分别斩获 2、3、4 名。

可别小瞧了限定皮肤的“吸金能力”——Sensor Tower 数据,《王者荣耀》曾因推出龙年限定皮肤而创下单日流水高峰,使其在 2024 年 2 月份的收入环比增加 6%;蛇年除夕《王者荣耀》充值入口一度被玩家挤到网络异常,直接将单月国内 iOS 市场收入爆拉 8%。

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一年多以前,虎嗅曾撰文指出腾讯游戏正阶段性面临“内忧外患”的局面:

于腾讯内部而言,虽然旗下产品优势品类覆盖广泛,体现出一种集团军式的产品势能,但手里两颗“摇钱树”一度被视作业务风向标——《王者荣耀》至今运营超 9 年,《和平精英》上线也近 6 年、吃鸡玩法自 2017 年爆火至今已超 8 年,而整个 IEG 却迟迟拿不出接棒的新爆款。

于外部竞争而言,米哈游(《原神》)、莉莉丝(《万国觉醒》)、沐瞳科技(《Mobile Legends: Bang Bang》)、IGG(《王国纪元》)、Habby(《弓箭传说》)、灵犀互娱《三国志·战略版》等后起之秀通过一款上亿流水的产品在细分品类占住山头,且 2020 年《原神》引领的二次元潮流、2023 年初《蛋仔派对》引领的派对潮流都是被动跟随,再算上命好的 B 站(2024 年捡漏大爆款《三国:谋定天下》,直接扛起整个 B 站游戏业务连续两个季度跑出陡峭增速,分别同比增长84%、79%),腾讯在引领新品类上变得越来越被动。

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好在腾讯游戏 2024 年回暖明显:

更重要的一个趋势是,2024 年腾讯新一线产品开始崭露头角,《金铲铲之战》《无畏契约》《火影忍者》《暗区突围》《三角洲行动》以及 LOL 手游、CF 手游,产品表现在移动端与 PC 端都蹿到了诸多细分品类头部,甚至第一的位置。

再将视线拉回到网易,在 Sensor Tower 统计 2 月中国游戏发行商全球手游收入榜整体排名第二,延续其在 Party Game、MMO 品类的统治力。

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具体来看,《蛋仔派对》《第五人格》以及老产品《梦幻西游》《逆水寒》均有不俗的流水表现,尤其《蛋仔派对》与《葫芦兄弟》《奶龙》的系列联动蓄势,推动 2 月收入大增 22%。

回归玩家视角,《蛋仔派对》的充值体系和盲盒一如既往让玩家诟病,这是网易的老毛病了,暂且按下不表,这里想探讨的是:《糖豆人:终极淘汰赛》《Among Us》《鹅鸭杀》等派对游戏已经成功验证社交传播的巨大势能、完成用户心智卡位,《蛋仔派对》为何还能后来居上、并成功“击穿”00后、05后群体?

要回答上述问题,或许可以从两个层面展开:

一方面,《蛋仔派对》拿出了高品质美术设计,叠加其轻松休闲的游戏节奏、强互动的游戏社交属性,掳获了不少年轻玩家的心。除此之外,《蛋仔派对》可与好友共同挑战竞速、生存、个人积分、团队多种主题关卡,同时糅合了双人合作、2v2对抗、非对称竞技等多种游戏玩法——这些游戏场景对于注重自我表达,有更强群体认同感的00后、05后而言,无疑是一种新的“社交货币”。

事实上,与80后、90后社交基于某些物理连接(现实身份信息)不同,00后、05后社交先要找到兴趣交集——他们对交新朋友怀着一种热烈的期待,渴望被看见,却又固执地选择画地为牢,圈地自萌(圈层化)成为这个世代最显性社交共性。

对此,Soul 产品负责人车斌曾向虎嗅表示,“从产品功能角度来看,兴趣社交核心服务是无压力社交互动,并以多样的产品功能满足各个圈层个性化的社交需求。尤其00后,更依赖‘赛博好友’,彼此不需要成为线下好友”——鉴于此,当其他代际用户习惯性划动主流社交 App 时,其实很难与00后们不期而遇,而兴趣社交对00后精神世界的支撑远比外界想象的稳固。

这背后是00后、05后社交正形成一个明显趋势:圈子是其非常重要的交友参照,游戏在一定程度上正在逐步替代独立交友 App——比如,游戏社交平台 TT 语音联合 Mob 研究院发布线上社交行为洞察报告,游戏已成为 Z 世代重要的社交途径之一。

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另一方面,《蛋仔派对》中“蛋仔工坊”衍生出的 UGC( User Generated Content,用户生成内容)系统极大地拓宽了游戏探索边界,不仅为玩家提供了自由创作关卡、自制地图的便捷性,还充分调动玩家的创意碰撞和更多二创内容分享出圈。

说白了,《蛋仔派对》先通过内容与玩家连接起来,再凭借游戏口碑影响核心用户,让源源不断的 UGC 内容扩散至大众用户,从而引起社交平台广泛讨论,形成玩家传播闭环。

此外,腾讯、网易的产品布局风格亦存在差异:两者都走多元化产品战略,在二次元、竞技、休闲、射击、开放世界等优势垂类均有布局——不过,网易在投资时更看中明星制作人,腾讯近年来则对小型厂商的投资数量较多,其“撒网式”投资策略源于腾讯资金储备雄厚且不愿错失细分机会。

“新贵”洗牌加快

值得一提的是,前两年媒体鼓吹的“腾网米”格局如今正在悄然发生变化。

在 Sensor Tower 统计 2 月中国游戏发行商全球手游收入榜上,点点互动一路被《无尽冬日》扛着走,本期再超米哈游蹿到第三的位置。

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一方面,得益于《无尽冬日》协同并进的策略:其出色的产品力(玩法、画面、本地化)搭配高举高打的营销推广,一举在全球市场跑出一条漂亮的上扬曲线。

另一方面,《无尽冬日》前期滚起的流水势能让其正处于陡峭的爬升周期。例如,1 月下旬《无尽冬日》在海外市场推出“Year of the Snake”蛇年春节活动后,直接拉动海外收入环比增长 10% 达到约 1.4 亿美元,稳居出海手游收入榜冠军。

另据 Sensor Tower 应用洞察数据,《无尽冬日》全球累计收入已达 19 亿美元——如今,产品生命周期尚处于爬升阶段,按照其吸金能力完全能支撑点点互动继续在榜单躺一阵子。

至于榜单 4-10 名的游戏厂商变化不大,依次是米哈游、柠檬微趣(《Gossip Harbor》《Seaside Escape》)、海彼游戏、叠纸网络(《恋与深空》)、三七互娱、莉莉丝游戏、江娱互动(《Top Heroes》《口袋奇兵》)。

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如果说一份榜单不足以代表国内游戏厂商单月市场表现的全貌,那么外媒最新发布的榜单再从侧面印证了国内游戏厂商格局变化的趋势。

Mobilegamer.biz 最新发布的 2025 年 2 月全球手游收入榜显示(统计范围不包括第三方安卓渠道、网页商店及广告收入,且已扣除平台分成):

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腾讯依然稳固榜首,主要得益于《王者荣耀》在寒假 + 春节这样黄金窗口的优秀表现,拉动 2 月份其在苹果 App Store 和 Google Play 商店营收达到 2.03 亿美元。

元趣娱乐(First Fun)位列第二,旗下《LastWar: Survival》市场表现持续火爆,推动 2 月产品内购收入达到约 1.63 亿美元。

意外的是,世纪华通一路扶摇直上,挤到第三的位置,主要凭借《无尽冬日》的优异表现,助其单月狂揽 1.3 亿美元。

值得玩味的是,华创证券报告(春节特辑)显示,前两年颇受行业关注的米哈游旗下无产品进入蛇年春节 TOP15,而在 Mobilegamer.biz 发布的 2 月统计榜单中,米哈游再次掉出前十。

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具体到产品,2 月米哈游勉强靠着《崩坏:星穹铁道》新角色“阿格莱雅”上线(3.0 下半卡池)及全新 3.1 版本(“门扉之启,王座之终”)爬到榜单第 16 名,其拳头产品《原神》则逐渐掉出头部梯队,跌至 20 名开外。

米哈游锐气不再

即便 Mobilegamer.biz 统计与 Sensor Tower 数据存在一定出入,但在一定程度上,两份榜单从侧面印证了国内游戏厂商格局的变化:腾讯、网易两位老大哥地位依然稳固,米哈游锐气不再,新游戏冲榜频率在加快。

不可否认,市场上一直存在一种情绪:希望腾讯、网易铁板一块的格局被打破,少年屠龙的叙事一再被搬出来,成为粗浅解释米哈游崛起,甚至腾讯、网易双寡头格局出现裂缝的说辞——行业需要这样的新叙事,新叙事也会让投资人乃至二次市场对游戏产业保持乐观。

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不过,早在 2023 年米哈游享受众星捧月的荣光时,《原神》狂飙的势头已经略显“疲态”:Sensor Tower 发布的中国 App Store 手游收入排行榜显示,2023 年 8 月《原神》在新版本加持下处于第 7 名,再往前一个月甚至跌至第 10 名——《原神》出现收入、活跃玩家数双双下滑的势头。

彼时,“原神效应”降温,游戏行业已经不像 2021-2022 年那般吹捧《原神》了,且《崩坏:星穹铁道》高举高打的投放买量策略并未换来持续上扬的市场增长曲线,巨额营销费用带来的爆发远不如最初《原神》那般“凶猛”,更遑论击穿品类天花板,自然难以再现《原神》持久的产品冲劲。

虎嗅了解到,《原神》海外主要发行日本、韩国、美国、加拿大、新西兰、澳大利亚、东南亚以及中国港澳台等市场,这些市场占整体海外市场超 80%;而东南亚、南美、中东地区市场环境过于复杂,《原神》迟迟未啃下较大市场份额。

以中东地区为例,抛开地缘政治、宗教信仰,该地区玩家不接受人物有耳钉、角色要有罩袍与大胡子等元素,且阿拉伯语的写作方向为从右向左,文本与界面需要从右向左排列,导致开发成本骤升,发行成本较高。

至于《原神》在欧美、日韩等海外主流市场 “吃香”的部分原因在于:团队会根据不同地区的用户画像和市场需求制定运营策略,包括广告、KOL 合作和社群运营(结合用户与潜在用户做海外社交媒体曝光),利用当地的线上+线下资源进行深度渗透,并力推品牌联动制造声量,比如在日本包下露营车涂装纳塔内容驰行街头宣传,比如与新加坡圣淘沙海洋馆推出联动套票。

毕竟,国内市场有一套可复制的样本,《原神》自 2020 年公测以来就在联名市场上“炙手可热”——喜茶、必胜客、肯德基、一加、雷蛇、索尼、红米、天猫精灵、凯迪拉克、招商信用卡、Primaniacs 香水、Keep 等品牌与《原神》联名皆引发玩家抢购潮,且一并掀翻了社交网络。

不过,《原神》生命周期走到现在,二次元用户渗透基本完成,而对泛化用户来说,市场情绪不再只盯着二次元、开放世界,且玩家上手难度不小、任务流程随着版本更新也越发繁琐,那些沉默的、波动的数据背后是被“光芒”掩盖的问题——前期探索费时费力,后期长草没动力,使得大量玩家进入倦怠期。

事实上,米哈游更多是一种产业多样性的希望——米哈游之于腾讯,双方更多是游戏圈新旧势力的对撞、是内容与渠道话语权的博弈、是集团工作室赛马与“毕功于一役 ”(原创大 IP 精品化)的路线之争。

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亦如去年一飞冲天的游戏科学,通过《黑神话:悟空》打破世界之于国产独立游戏的偏见、成为首款入围 TGA(The Game Awards,被称为“游戏界奥斯卡”)“年度最佳游戏奖”(Game of the Year)提名的中国游戏,市场热捧的底层既是基于高品质的产品自身,也将其视作国产游戏工业水准进步的“里程碑”。

更纵深去看,当下国产游戏不再局限于一个独立的产品,而变成了一门创意脑洞与商业运作相结合的艺术,从芯片、半导体、引擎到计算机、AI,游戏对科技产业的推动效能亦在被放大——这背后,是越来越多中国开发者试图为玩家构筑出一个丰饶的精神乐园、赛博分身,默默打磨着产品和团队,日拱一卒推动着产业齿轮缓慢前行。

#虎嗅商业消费主笔黄青春、黄青春频道出品人,关注文娱社交、游戏影音等多个领域,行业人士交流加微信:724051399,新闻线索亦可邮件至 huangqingchun@huxiu.com

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